The first playoff match for the right to play in Ligue 1 between Metz and Reims will take place on May 21 at the Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz vs. Reims: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Metz
The club finished in 3rd place in this season's Ligue 2, earning the right to compete for a spot in the top division. Metz defeated Dunkerque 1-0 in the semi-final to reach the decisive stage of the playoffs. Recall that last season, the team was relegated from Ligue 1 after losing the playoffs to Saint-Etienne (1-2, 2-2). Notably, in this current Ligue 2 campaign, Metz suffered the fewest losses among all clubs – 5 (18 wins, 11 draws). Moreover, the team concluded the main tournament with a solid positive goal difference of 64:34. At home, Stéphane Le Mignan's side lost only once this season, winning 10 matches and drawing 6.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Metz's last 11 matches in Ligue 2 and playoff matches.
- At least 3 goals were scored in 10 of the club's last 11 games in these tournaments.
- The team has not lost in 31 of their last 32 home matches in the second division and playoff matches (19 wins, 12 draws).
Predicted lineup for Metz (4-5-1)
Pape Sarr – Matthieu Udol, Yuri-Michel Mboula, Sadibou Sane, Koffi Kouao – Alpha Toure, Jessy Demenge, Morgan Bokélé, Gauthier Hein, Pape Diallo – Cheikh Sabaly.
Reims
After suffering three consecutive defeats at the end of the championship, Reims finished in 16th place in Ligue 1, forcing the team to fight for its place in the elite through the playoffs. Unlike Metz, Reims did not participate in the preliminary stage of the playoffs and went straight to the final. In this season's Ligue 1, the club managed to win only 8 matches (9 draws, 17 losses), with only Montpellier, who finished last, winning fewer games (4). Reims' attack was weak, scoring only 33 goals this season, with only Angers (32) and Montpellier (23) scoring fewer. Notably, Reims performed slightly better away, earning 17 points compared to 16 at home.
- Reims failed to win in 20 of their last 23 matches in the French championship (7 draws, 13 losses).
- The club has not scored more than 1 goal in their last 5 matches in this tournament.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 7 of Reims' last 8 away matches in Ligue 1.
Predicted lineup for Reims (5-4-1)
Yehvann Diouf – Sergio Akieme, Cédric Kipré, Joseph Okumu, Hiroki Sakine, Aurelio Buta – Junya Ito, Mori Gbane, Amadou Koné, Valentin Atangana Edoa – Jordan Siebatcheu.
Midfielders Yaya Fofana, Teddy Teuma, Reda Khadra, and forward Mohamed Daramy will miss the game due to health issues.
Referee
Hakim Ben El Hadj (France)
Matches – 20 (Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 82;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 28;
Penalties – 25%.
Match Prediction: Metz vs. Reims
The hosts narrowly overcame the previous stage of the playoffs, defeating Dunkerque only at the very end, scoring the decisive goal in the 93rd added minute. That match was also played at home, where they have been excellent this season, as noted above. Throughout the Ligue 2 championship, the team lost only once at home, scoring 37 goals and conceding 15. Overall, Stéphane Le Mignan's side had a stable season, deservedly finishing in the top three.
However, the same cannot be said for Metz's upcoming opponent. Reims had a disastrous spell in Ligue 1 from November to March, failing to win in 15 matches (6 draws, 9 losses). The club then transformed, and with three rounds to go, Reims was in 13th place, five points clear of the playoff zone. However, due to a poor end to the season, Reims unexpectedly dropped to 16th place, forcing the federation to reschedule playoff dates, as they will play PSG in the French Cup final on Saturday. This will undoubtedly affect the visitors' preparation for the upcoming match.
I doubt that Reims, caught in such an unplanned situation, will be able to regroup. The club already had a poor championship, and they face a strong Metz side, who are excellent at home and have not lost in 31 of their last 32 matches in Ligue 2 and playoff matches. Reims, meanwhile, failed to win away in 10 of their last 11 Ligue 1 matches. Moreover, Metz has never lost to Reims at home in the new millennium in the first and second tiers of French football (3 wins, 7 draws). I am confident that the hosts will not lose this time either. My prediction: Metz to win or draw
